A Trariti Consulting Group Study by Swapnil Roy
An EV is a potential replacement for the conventional automobile of today. It is an alternative for the current internal combustion engines vehicles and answers for all the environmental concerns. It is a vehicle that operates on an electric motor instead of burning fuel and gases.
Market Value and Region-wise Market Share
The global electric vehicle market was valued at USD 170 billion in 2021 and is predicted to exceed USD 1103.17 billion by 2030, growing at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 23.1% from 2022 to 2030.
The Asia Pacific electric vehicle market, worth
USD 121.7 billion in 2021, was the greatest revenue
generator, accounting for 71.6% of the market.
In 2021, over 3.5 million EVs were sold in China,
a 150% increase over the previous year.
Europe as a whole trailed China as the world's
second largest EV market. In Europe, 2.3 million
EVs were sold in 2021, a 66% increase over 2020.
Europe accounted for seven of the top ten yearly
EV sales markets in 2021, including Germany, the United Kingdom, France, Norway, Italy, Sweden,and the Netherlands.
The United States and South Korea came in third and ninth place, respectively. The United States sold 667,731 electric vehicles in 2018, a 103% increase from 2020. South Korean EV sales reached an all-time high of 115,137, up 128% from 2020.
Indian Market Overview
In 2021, the India electric car market was estimated at USD 681.51 million. The market is expected to increase at a CAGR of 65.1% from $1,415.65 million in 2022 to $47,292.45 million by 2029. Vehicle emissions in major Indian cities such as Delhi, Mumbai, Bangalore, and Hyderabad have increased dramatically, raising awareness about the negative effects of pollution and, as a result, fueling market growth.
Furthermore, gradually rising gasoline fuel prices are one of the primary drivers driving market expansion. The increasing number of EV adoption efforts and government investments in the development of charging infrastructure across the country are fueling industry expansion.
To give purchasing incentives for electric vehicles, the Indian government launched the Faster Adoption and Manufacturing of Hybrid and Electric Vehicles in India (FAME) II scheme. The government stated in November 2021 that it will provide USD 66.63 million to create and purchase 2877 charging stations and 6315 electric buses in 68 locations across India.
The Green Mobility Scheme is another such initiative, under which the government would deploy 26,000 paratransit and regular alternative-fuel buses in 103 cities. Aside from the federal government, bids have been submitted by 26 states and union territories to jointly deploy 14,988 of these clean-energy cars. Another measure that will aid the Indian electric bus business is the $4.6 billion in funding offered for battery makers to bolster domestic production.
With a combined market share of 64%, Hero Electric, Okinawa, and Ather Energy dominate the Indian electric two-wheeler market.
Hero Electric has a market share of 36% followed by Okinawa with 21%. With an 11.1% market share, Ather Energy is gradually gaining market share as the company expands its distribution network across India.
Tata Motors leads the electric vehicle industry with a 71% market share in the passenger vehicle class, led by its two core models, Nexon and Tigor EV.
MG Motors India is in second place and offers the longest-range EV (MG EZS provides 439 KM range on a single charge). Other Indian manufacturers have revealed their models, which will be released in the near future.
The ICCT recently analysed the total cost of ownership (TCO) gap between BEVs and comparable gasoline, diesel, and compressed natural gas (CNG) vehicle models if used for ride-hailing in Delhi in 2020 over a 5- year operating period. The TCO evaluated existing policy measures at the national, state, and local levels that would be in place by the end of 2020 and identified additional policy interventions that could supplement existing policies to reduce the cost differential between BEVs and conventional ICE vehicles, as shown in the figure above.
The analysis discovered that if additional policy measures were enacted, the cost disadvantage of the BEV Tata Nexon over the CNG car would be reduced. For example, in Delhi, the cost disadvantage of the BEV Tata Nexon will be reduced to INR 0.42 per km under present policies plus recommended actions, compared to INR 1.59 without additional measures. Similarly, the BEV Mahindra eVerito D2 would be INR 1.34 per kilometre cheaper than the CNG car in Delhi as a result of additional policies.
Given that India has significantly fewer automobiles per thousand people than industrialized countries such as the United States, United Kingdom, and Australia, the majority of the population will continue to rely on public transportation.
As a result, in order for India to decrease its carbon
footprint, the focus must be on large-scale
electrification of public transportation, with e-buses
playing a critical role.
The Indian electric bus market is expected to
grow at a 48.8% CAGR between 2021 and
2025 from $94.3 million in 2020 to
$1,364.4 million by 2025.
Convergence Energy Services Ltd., a state-owned company, is considering a $10 billion tender for 50,000 electric buses, which will support India's aim to decarbonize public transportation and achieve net zero emissions.
CESL was founded in 2020 to oversee the solar and electric vehicle leasing operations of its parent company, Energy Efficiency Services Ltd., a joint venture of four state-owned energy corporations.
These are the key companies that will play a significant role in India's strategy to reduce its overall estimated carbon emissions by one billion tonnes by 2030 as part of its ambition to attain net zero emissions by 2070. CESL was awarded a contract for 5,450 electric buses on behalf of five state governments this year.
EV for Ride Hailing
Ride-hailing services such as Ola and Uber have grown in popularity in India in recent years, with 32% of consumers using them at least once a week. This is much higher than in other large ride-hailing markets, where it is 11% in the United States and 4% in Germany. In India, 57% of ride-hailing users prefer it to their own vehicle; this proportion is 29% in the US and 32% in Germany.
Ola revealed its goal in 2018 to bring 1 million electric vehicles to market by 2021 through a collaborative platform focused on all vehicle sectors, but primarily on electric three-wheelers. However, later in 2020, Ola shifted its focus to electric two-wheelers. Uber, India's second major ride-hailing operator, has yet to disclose any particular electrification plans for the country. Although Uber India earlier announced partnership with other companies to electrify its fleet, the results were disappointing. Uber just announced a collaboration with Lithium Urban Technologies to deploy 1,000 electric vehicles on its platform.
In 2014 and 2019, small companies like Lithium and BluSmart began operating all-electric car fleets in the Indian passenger transportation market. Lithium solely works in the business-to-business (B2B) arena with its own fleet of over 850 electric vehicles, whereas BluSmart Mobility offers all-electric car ride-hailing services in Delhi, Noida, Ghaziabad, Gurgaon, Jaipur, and Mumbai. The company controls vehicle charging using strategically positioned captive electric charging stations and operates 870 electric automobiles on its platform via a third-party leasing model.
BluSmart expects to have more than 30,000 by the end of 2023. It has a total of 13,500 electric cars on order with Tata Motors. Its fleet also includes EVs from MG Motors, owned by Chinese automaker SAIC Motor Corp, and China’s BYD Co.
India has about 2.8 million trucks that travel more than 100 billion kilometres each year. Despite accounting for only around 2% of on-road vehicles, trucks account for roughly 40% of road transport emissions and fuel consumption. According to studies, the share of electric trucks in total freight trucks should be 79% by 2070 in order to achieve net-zero emissions
It is absolutely feasible to electrify trucks. Indeed, some of the world's most advanced countries have already set targets TO phase-out of internal combustion
engine medium and heavytrucks. The state of
California in the United States has pledged to
have 100% zero-emission trucks by 2045.
Furthermore, Austria will require that all
new registrations of heavy-duty vehicles
weighing less than 18 tonnes be zero-
emission beginning in 2030, and those
weighing more than 18 tonnes beginning
Norway has set a target of 50%
zero-emission sales of new heavy-duty vehicles by 2030. It's not only about developed countries. Pakistan, our neighbour, has set a target of 30% electric truck sales by 2030 and 90% by 2040.
We now have zero electric truck models on the market since there is no demand for these trucks. However, if trucks were included in a FAME-like scheme, we would see original equipment manufacturers invest more in R&D and introduce models for potential purchasers.
It is possible to accelerate the usage of electric trucks in India. Just look at the last few years as a guide. Even though it was once thought impossible, India jumped from Bharat Stage (BS) IV emission norms to BS VI and bypassed BS V. This demonstrates that the ecosystem may be altered with sufficient regulatory impetus. The same level of ambition is needed for electric trucks.
Non-Monetary Policies to drive electrification in ride hailing businesses
Outside India, the electrification of ride-hailing vehicles has been primarily driven by policies from cities, states, or national governments that have also implemented strong electric vehicle measures. Such towns and regions are seeing more participation and commitments from ride-hailing companies and drivers to move toward electric vehicles.
1. Electrification goals and strategies for ride-hailing companies
Emission standards for ride-hailing fleets
Green standards for ride-hailing companies for access to transportation hubs
Licensing or permit requirements for ride-hailing companies
There are also policies in place that target the electrification of passenger car fleets as a whole, consequently to the benefit of ride-hailing fleets:
Targets for phasing out the sale or registration of new combustion engine cars
Zero-emission vehicle regulations
Labeling of electric vehicles and preferential access to benefits for electric vehicles
Urban vehicle regulations with planned preferential access for electric vehicles
Non-fiscal registration benefits for electric vehicles
These policies have been implemented by the National, State and local governments in many European and Asian countries as well as the US and Canada. India has only implemented labeling of electric vehicles so far. However, even that does not currently help get preferential access to relevant benefits.
The government needs to make and execute policies that will push the electrification of vehicles in both the public transport sector as well as passenger car sector, regulate combustion engine vehicles and the number of emissions by these cars, and invest in charging infrastructure.
EV Tech Trends
Artificial Intelligence and Internet of Things
Batteries are extremely complex components, both chemically and electrically, as well as in terms of software. However, data analytics can help us better understand them: how they are used, how the driver affects them, and how other components in the car affect them. Predictive maintenance improves battery efficiency and operational dependability.
Machine Learning assists in unlocking the hidden potential and possibility of battery life cycle management. The key to increasing battery life is data. Machine Learning, which combines modern electronics with IoT, data science, and digital twin, harnesses the power of predictive intelligence to estimate battery life, identify probable degradation/breakdown and their causes, and repair delays/errors before they occur.
After collecting and monitoring significant data on battery life, performance, state of charge, stress from rapid acceleration and deceleration, temperature, number of charge cycles, and so on, ML adds a layer of intelligence that is stored on the cloud.
Ford intends to employ Google's AI, data science, and analytical capabilities to enhance customer experiences, speed product development, production, and supply chain management modernization, and accelerate the implementation of data-driven business models.
Ather Energy, India's first intelligent electric scooter manufacturer, has unveiled the core algorithmic framework of its battery management system.
Production Technology of EVs
Improved battery technology has been a critical step toward expanding EV demand, but EV producers must ensure that manufacturing keeps up and continues to
develop. EV manufacturing, in particular, will
need to become faster, more efficient, and
capable of producing more car variants.
Reaching more efficient mass production will
also help in reducing prices through leveraging
economies of scale.
Finally, making EVs more appealing to the
general public will necessitate the availability
of a greater selection of electric car models.
This will enable various different types of
customers to find a vehicle that meets their individual requirements. Tesla appears to be having a lot of success with this technique, with its newly announced Cybertruck.
All in all, scale economies, incremental improvements, and major innovations in production tech will be essential for the car industry to keep pace with a rapidly growing demand for EVs.
Smart charging can also help with load balancing, which is important as energy needs on the national grid rise alongside electric vehicle sales. Load balancing is an emerging technology trend that aids in the distribution of available capacity across all active charging stations. It also helps to ensure that all- electric vehicles receive optimal charging at a specified place, within the capacity of the charging stations.
Charge point owners will be able to balance
the load and disperse the current between
units using this technology. This is a more
dynamic, cost-effective, and environmentally
friendly manner of delivering electricity to
every single station.
With its developing new technology trends,
the electric vehicle category will undoubtedly
take over the automobile industry in the next
Battery technology will make EVs more
affordable and accessible than petrol, diesel, or gas vehicles,increasing demand. Furthermore, quick production technologies will make EVs more accessible to the general public by assuring that supply can keep up with escalating demand.
Various charging technologies, such as bidirectional charging, will prepare the grid for more EVs and aid the clean energy transition in the coming years. Furthermore, evolving infrastructure technologies will ensure that EV charging is convenient for everyone, whether at home or on the road.
Bidirectional charging refers to EV charging that works in two directions: taking power from the grid to charge the EV's battery and supplying electricity for other loads as needed from the battery. With bidirectional charging, an EV can assist power a home, company, the electric grid, another car, or specified loads. While charging, alternating current (AC) power from the grid is converted to direct current (DC) voltage and stored in the car's battery.
The power in the battery can then be used to power a residence or added back to the electrical system by EV drivers. This is accomplished by converting the power from direct current to alternating current. This function is performed by a converter in the car or in the charger itself.
There are different types of Bidirectional charging which can be used in different applications, depending on needs and capabilities. They are:
Vehicle To Grid (V2G): V2G refers to the practise of exporting a portion of the EV battery energy to the electricity grid when demand is high in exchange for credits or lower power rates, depending on the service contract. To participate in V2G programmes, a bidirectional DC charger and a compatible EV is required. Of course, there are financial incentives to join, and EV owners are granted credits or lower electricity rates. EVs with V2G can also participate in virtual power plant (VPP) projects to increase grid stability. Only a few EVs presently support V2G and bidirectional DC charging, including the later model Nissan Leaf (ZE1) and Mitsubishi Outlander and Eclipse plug-in hybrids.
Vehicle To Home (V2H):
V2H is similar to V2G in the sense
that the energy is used locally to
power a home rather than being
fed into the power grid. This
allows the EV to work similarly to
a standard household battery
system, hence increasing self-
sufficiency, particularly when
combined with rooftop solar.
Another advantage of V2H is its
capacity to offer backup power in the event that the electricity goes out.
Vehicle To Load (V2L):
V2L technology is much simpler to implement because it does not require a bidirectional charger to function. V2L vehicles include a built-in bidirectional charger as well as normal plug- in AC power outlets that may be used to plug in any ordinary household AC equipment. Extension cords can be run from the vehicle into a home in an emergency to power vital loads such as lighting, computers, refrigerators, and even culinary appliances.
To take advantage of this power for domestic use, the Nissan Leaf currently has bidirectional charging capabilities and requires the installation of a power supply centre in the home. The Ford 150 Lightning, which will be available in 2022, can provide 9.6 kW of electricity to a home's electrical panel for several days. This setup necessitates the use of Ford's Charge Station Pro and a 100-amp circuit. The Hyundai Ioniq 2022 can also power loads and provide 3.6 kW of electricity.
Electric vehicles run on lithium batteries, which, like people, do not enjoy extreme hot or cold temperatures. Anytime lithium batteries are taken out of their comfort zone, they risk performance and safety. However, India has an inherent advantage when it comes to lithium-ion batteries. India can be a world leader in both pack assembly and battery management systems (BMS) technology, due to its lower cost of assembly.
BMS keeps track of the voltage, current, and temperature of the battery and adjusts the charging rate to maintain the needed constant current/constant voltage (CC/CV) charging profile. India’s strengths in software create huge opportunities in BMS Technology.
The Li- ion battery packs are software intensive, with IoT and connectivity. While the cells are currently imported, we have an opportunity to put together a smart battery pack, which are tailored for Indian requirements. These layers of software can give unprecedented level of safety, reliability and performance.
As India begins its transition to EVs, government backing in the form of a regulatory framework, lower battery costs, and widespread availability of charging infrastructure are expected to be crucial pillars for universal adoption.
For a robust and dynamic ecosystem to mainstream Electric Vehicle adoption, backward/forward integration among manufacturers, battery OEMs, financial institutions, cab aggregators, business enterprises, and start-ups would be required.
The primary issue, however, is the infrastructure required for such cars in terms of charging stations. Unless and until this is available, electric vehicles will be unable to travel the length and breadth of the country. Recognizing this deficit, the Power Ministry has set a goal of installing one charging station every 25 kilometres of route. However, it has outsourced the development of particular aims and strategies for urban areas to cities or state transportation hubs. The Ministry also intends to build infrastructure for semi-public charging at a rate of 20% of total parking capacity on the site.
These recommendations are based on a Niti Aayog report on rules and standards for state and municipal governments in establishing an EV charging network. The report also underlined the chances for battery switching, which Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman stated in the 2022-23 budget. According to the article, the battery swapping facility will have the advantage of eventually eliminating the problem of battery charging in EVs. As a result, the Road Transport Ministry has already approved the sale and registration of battery-free EVs, which should increase the prospects for battery replacement options.
Thus, the private players are expected to be able to bring innovation in the era when technology like AI, bidirectional charging, production technology are evolving. Whereas, at this stage, it is critical for the government to create insights into the broader ecosystem for electric mobility. The government will play an indispensable role in creating a conducive environment for greater participation of private operators at all stages of EV adoption by developing policy and regulatory framework; setting standards, specifications, and performance benchmarks; operations planning, monitoring, and controlling; research and development in EVs and their subsystems; and skill development for manufacturing, operation, maintenance, and management of EVs and their subsystems.